Kim Jong-il died, unfortunately, just a few months before the centenary
celebrations of his father, the late ‘Supreme Leader’ and ‘Founder Father’ Kim
Il-Sung, were to take place. The whole nation was gearing up to making North
Korea a ‘strong and prosperous nation’ by the centennial year 2012. There were
no clear answers as to how they proposed to do this, at least not to the outside
world. North Korea had also publicly declared its desire to become a fully
functional nuclear weapons state by 2012.
Was it this sort of pressure
that resulted in Kim Jong-il’s fatal myocardial infarction, as speculated?
Unlikely, North Korean leaders - only two so far – have not really had to
deliver on their promises to their people. Indeed, they have always been able to
magically turn even dung into flowers for the North Korean people by merely
shifting the angle of focus.
However, this has begun to gradually change
in the last few years, with globalization leading to a trickling in of
information about their well-to-do southern half brethren. As a result, people
started becoming savvy by reading between the lines in the information doled out
to them about the world outside.
Kim Jong-il, therefore, might have felt
the pressure of having to deliver on some count or the other, whether it was on
the nuclear front or on the economic front. His hold on his people was not as
total as his father’s and he would not have been able to fool the people all the
time.
This raises the question of the credibility of the designated heir
apparent, Kim Jong-eun. Will he be able to hold the country together? No one
knows anything about him. In fact it is his father’s death that has catapulted
him into some prominence. The topmost question on many peoples’ minds when the
news of Kim Jong-il’s death broke was this: will the people of North Korea use
this opportunity to rise against the establishment as people elsewhere in the
world have done recently, fighting for justice?
This thought might have
been triggered by the fact that of late, the people of North Korea have been
engaging in exercising their will in a small way through some amount of
non-state directed buying and selling of goods. The answer came via the
outpouring of the people in their praise of the heir apparent.
Many
other issues too have to be settled now. For instance, what happens to the six
party talks? Whom will the negotiators henceforth represent during
talks?
If the military continues to wield power, who will be their
frontman? Kim Jong-eun may be a four-star general in the Korean People’s Army
(KPA) but he is not even a member of the National Defense Commission (NDC) of
which Kim Jong-il was chairman and which is the main organization that takes
important decisions regarding the ‘military first’ regime. Also, what is the
future of the nuclear weapons and missiles programme in North Korea?
Kim
Jong-eun is too young and inexperienced. He has not been built up sufficiently
yet to have been indoctrinated into the psyche of the people, nor has he himself
had enough time to take over the nuclear weapons programme. His father Kim
Jong-il had been handed over the weapons programme by his father Kim Il-sung to
raise his standing in the eyes of his countrymen long before he died, and Kim
Jong-il inherited the power of the state. Kim Jong-eun has had no such luck.
The first few weeks after the funeral on 28 December will be crucial.
Kim Jong-il’s 65 year old brother-in-law Jang Song-T’aek was the vice-chairman
of the NDC and the second-in-command before Kim Jong-il died. Now it remains to
be seen whether Kim Jong-eun is inducted into the NDC, and if so at what level.
In any case, internally, it is this uncle who will be the crucial kingpin, as
Uncle Jang could play Shakuni and either become his mentor or take charge
completely. Externally, the fact that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons
creates an imperative on China to ensure stability. So as long as Kim Jong-eun
manages to retain China’s support he should be alright, for the time being.
(उत्तर कोरिया के राष्ट्रपति किम जोंग उन (बाएं से पहले) अपने सैन्य सलाहकारों के साथ सिगरेट पीते हुए) सीओल(दक्षिण कोरिया) -- उत्तर कोरि...
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